This is my personal view and comments on the issues and events that I feel a need to talk about or express my view. You don't have to agree, but lets carry on a adult, discussion and maybe you will see it the right way, mine. ;)
Its hard to to argue with that...
Published on July 12, 2004 By ShadowWar In International
There is a tendency these days that urges one on to hit President George Bush while he is down. But let me say this - Briefly put, the world is more at peace than when he came to power. Sound strange? The big powers have never been so relaxed with each other since the late part of the nineteenth century and early years of the twentieth and the number of small wars- ethnic disputes, tribal punch ups and territorial disputes- has been going down every year.

Through all the vicissitudes of Iraq the Bush Administration has managed to keep relations with Russia at their calmest and most fruitful since before the Revolution. Despite the earlier tensions over abrogating the Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty, Bush appears to have won the trust of President Vladimir Putin that he is not up to a clever game to overcome Russia's defenses against a surprise nuclear attack. Neither has U.S. oil-politik in the Caspian region proved as malevolent as was first surmised. Bush has leant over backwards - too far - to be understanding about Chechnya. There are great gaps in Bush's Russian policies - a casual pace on nuclear disarmament and a lack of funds for making safe Russia's old nukes and plutonium stockpiles which could do more for nuclear proliferation than anything he has tried to do with Iraq, Iran and North Korea - but, still, this lack of antagonism in the central relationship is remarkable.

With China, after a rocky start, one gets the same sense of cooperative peace. Without turning a hair China voted for the recent U.N. resolution empowering U.S. peacekeeping in Iraq. Washington has prevailed upon Taiwan not to rock the boat and seems to accept that China has no great extra-territorial ambitions, outside of Taiwan, Tibet and mineral riches of the South China sea, all of which it has decided to manage and live with without overt conflict.

Bush has handled the Turks with adroitness. Surprised at their last minute refusal to disallow passage of U.S. troops to northern Iraq at the onset of the war, Bush kept his mouth shut and has now become Turkey's main cheerleader for its admittance to the European Union.

With Iran he has been right to keep the pressure on the Europeans to be more assertive in persuading it to be honest about its nuclear bomb program. Unlike Bill Clinton he has taken Russia's commercial interests in Iran's nuclear power program much more into account. And it could well be he will have the success there that he has had in Libya where he has persuaded Muammar al-Qaddafi to cease bomb research. At last too Bush seems ready to compromise with North Korea, a nuclear fait accompli.

In contrast, in the Middle East progress all on fronts has been incremental when not counterproductive. Very slowly Washington has positioned itself as a critic of authoritarian regimes, even though they are still in realpolitik wanted on the U.S.'s side. With Israel he has turned back the clock and consequently taken a beating especially from the Europeans for being unblinkingly pro Ariel Sharon. But Europe, especially Britain and Germany, seem to forget they created this problem and they should look more to themselves and less to the U.S. to sort it out.

With most of the Indian sub-continent the future has never looked so promising since the British left in 1947. I had no brief for the need to go to war in Afghanistan and I remain convinced the "war on terrorism" be better left to police work than military action but there can be some hope, despite the shortcomings in aid promised to Afghanistan, that the country now has some chance of escaping from the worst of warlordism and poverty. India and Pakistan look as if both sides are moving towards making peace over Kashmir. India is on the path to becoming a big economic power, even more than China, but it will not be hostile either to the U.S. or China. The U.S., albeit belatedly, has decided unambiguously to be India's friend.

With the U.N., despite early animosity, the U.S. has ended up supporting peacekeeping operations in a sustained way, far more than Clinton ever did- five operations in Africa in just the last year. And it has taken on the chin the recent vote in the Security Council not to acquiesce to the U.S. desire for its troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere to be absolved from possible prosecution by the International Criminal Court.

If Bush loses in November he will be leaving the world- Iraq and Israel/Palestine apart - a better place than he found it. Who to thank? Colin Powell or the left side of Bush's own brain? The historians will have to tell us, since the press has conspicuously failed to keep us informed.

Comments
on Jul 12, 2004
A bunch of suspiciously coincidences, the ones that are true...

So instead of arguing Ill just take a cheap shot for fun:

"Bush appears to have won the trust of President Vladimir Putin that he is not up to a clever game to overcome Russia's defenses against a surprise nuclear attack. "

Yes, he has convinced him he is not doing anything clever.
on Jul 12, 2004
What about Southeast Asia? SInce his policies in the Middle East, Islamic and Christian extremists in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia have experienced a revival in support. During the last few decades, and especially with the slowly progressive policies of the major religious groups in the region, fanaticism and bigotry had been declining steadily. However over the last few years violence and extremism have become far more common. Admittedly in Indonesia's case this is in small part at least influenced by the collapse of the Suharto empire, but this in no way explains the belligerence with which many in the region view the US.
on Jul 13, 2004
Excellent article.

I think, given the decisions that Bush has had to make over the past 4 years, he has done a remarkable job. Not one of you bloggers out there could tell me you could do his job and not make mistakes, or err on a few things.

In my opinion, making cheap shots at people just proves to me that you obviously don't know much. Not to be offensive or anything, but constructive criticism is much better than the garbage some people spout.

Of course I also believe that Republicans and Democrats shouldn't attack each other the way they do in their campaign ads.

Keep up the good work.

Beebes
on Jul 13, 2004
Bush's worst legacy will be his dismantling of the environmental laws built up over the 1970s that saved us from undrinkable water and unbreathable air. If Bush is reelected and continues down this path, by 2010 we will back to burning rivers and smog-covered cities.
on Jul 13, 2004
Russia: Bush scrapped (in effect, weakened) one of the most important treaties we had with Russia, in fact one of the most important treaties for the world, the ABMT. He has also practically ignored the recent erosion of democracy in Russia.

China: Handled the Spy plane hostage situation well, but Bush should engage more intensely. He has offered no long-term vision for Taiwain, instead leaving a time bomb ready to go off at any time.

Turkey: Bush should have never pressured Turkey on letting ground troops go through her into Iraq. That wasn't going to happen from Day 1. Had the US not demanded that, maybe public opinion in Turkey wouldn't be so anti-US, and they'd have agreed beforehand to supply peacekeeping troops once regime change was secured.

Iran: Bush hasn't done much to stop Iran from developing Nukes. Simply calling them "evil" isn't going to cut it.

India/Pakistan: No closer to peace than they have been in 30 years. Worst flair up perhaps in a decade occured in recently in summer 2002.

North Korea: Ditto. And even more scary here. Bush should be taking a much stronger more-proactive stance on North Korea.

Libya: Kadafi didn't disarm because of Iraq policy or anything related to Bush. He started reversing his policies of supporting Muslim revolutionaries in Africa and hostility towards the west long before Bush took office, somewhere around 1999.

Israel/Palestine: Bush was completely floundered in this situation. He has been a complete failure as peace negotiator, especially compared to Clinton.

The world is most certainly not a better place today than when Bush first took office. On the contrary, I find it hard to believe you're arguing that it is.
on Jul 13, 2004
Bush's worst legacy will be his dismantling of the environmental laws built up over the 1970s that saved us from undrinkable water and unbreathable air. If Bush is reelected and continues down this path, by 2010 we will back to burning rivers and smog-covered cities.


Give me facts. How has he done this and what laws did he undo? Or was it the Congress that voted them out? Or was it at the state level?

Russia: Bush scrapped (in effect, weakened) one of the most important treaties we had with Russia, in fact one of the most important treaties for the world, the ABMT. He has also practically ignored the recent erosion of democracy in Russia.


In case you havent followed the science side of this, the ABMT, how has that made the world a worse place. Also the erosion of democracy in Russia? Thats Bushes fault? What would you like him to do beside supporting the democratic government?

China: Handled the Spy plane hostage situation well, but Bush should engage more intensely. He has offered no long-term vision for Taiwain, instead leaving a time bomb ready to go off at any time.


If we follow that logic we should be attacking North Korea now because we all know that bomb will go off before China/Taiwain. Bush is well liked in Taiwain BTW. In case you didn't know that.


Turkey: Bush should have never pressured Turkey on letting ground troops go through her into Iraq. That wasn't going to happen from Day 1. Had the US not demanded that, maybe public opinion in Turkey wouldn't be so anti-US, and they'd have agreed beforehand to supply peacekeeping troops once regime change was secured.


Bush pressured Turkey to allow our troops to go through? Then how come we couldn't do it? I guess all that pressure really worked. BTW have you checked the percentage of Muslim population in Turkey and what one of Turkeys main internal problems is?


Iran: Bush hasn't done much to stop Iran from developing Nukes. Simply calling them "evil" isn't going to cut it.


OK lets Invade it I agree there. But at least he is doing something, although I think that trying to go through the Usless Nations is a waste of time. Like we found out with Iraq.


India/Pakistan: No closer to peace than they have been in 30 years. Worst flair up perhaps in a decade occured in recently in summer 2002.


And this is Bushs fault??



North Korea: Ditto. And even more scary here. Bush should be taking a much stronger more-proactive stance on North Korea.


Again whats your suggestion? Should we invade? Remember what happened last time we were at war with Korea. He is working on the problem, but see we have some other minor issues in the world he is having to deal with right now.



Libya: Kadafi didn't disarm because of Iraq policy or anything related to Bush. He started reversing his policies of supporting Muslim revolutionaries in Africa and hostility towards the west long before Bush took office, somewhere around 1999.


Citations please.

Israel/Palestine: Bush was completely floundered in this situation. He has been a complete failure as peace negotiator, especially compared to Clinton.


I am not sure how effective Clinton was, since Bush inherited the problem from him. The Israel/Palestine issue is not one that can be solved by any one country.

The world is most certainly not a better place today than when Bush first took office. On the contrary, I find it hard to believe you're arguing that it is.


Please look at the facts, things are beter as I cited, and things are better here at home. Jobs are up, Economy is best it has been in decades, and the US has finally gotten off its ass and is pursuing terrorist where they are rather than wait and react after they kill thousands of our own people.

on Jul 13, 2004
In case you havent followed the science side of this, the ABMT, how has that made the world a worse place


Well, maybe he thinks that our ability to integrate the different missile defense elements in our arsenal is making the world a worse place. That treaty was what was keeping things like an Aegis cruiser from communicating with NORAD if it saw a missile launch.
on Jul 14, 2004
Interesting article.

Six months ago I would automatically have laughed at this suggestion, but to be fair, in the past few months Bush has made a major effort to undo some of the previous few years of damage. Strangely it's the change in his policies in the past few months that have achieved this, not the policies he's been originally been following.

You mention
The big powers have never been so relaxed with each other
. A year ago Bush with his anti UN and unilateral approach ti Iraq had managed to polarise all world opinion into for or against. He had China, Russia, France, German clearly in the against. In the past few months he's started working again with the EU and the UN. He's pleaded with EU countries to supply more support to Iraq, and even France has now agreed to help. He's caved in on a number of UN demands that a year ago were taboo subjects (such as immunity to prosecution) and now finds plenty of support from there as well. So on that front I think it's fair to say that while relations are not as good as with Clinton, things are definitely improving.

To deal with your specifics,
Bush has taken a 'we don't critise you, you don't critise us' approach to Russia. This seems to be working well and no major threats are currently seen from this area. The nuclear no-proliferation issue is the biggest here.
On China Bush has again being taking the 'we don't critise you, you don't critise us' approach. Some theatrics when the US published it's human right report but no major issues.
Turkey is a country I believe the US has made a mistake with. It offered them a huge bribe ($16B I believe) to let it invade from there and the parliament blocked it. It was a bad call as many Turks did nopt like the thought that they could be bought. Recent efforts to support their efforts to join the EU are likely to applease them, but upset EU countries who believe it is none of the US's business. Imagine US reaction if France tried to interfere with US internal decisions.
Iran is an unknown. The UN and US still disagree on Iran's nuclear research status, and a lack of data coupled with lack of trust in CIA reports isn't helping here.
While Libya renounced WMD under Bush's term, it was not purely down to him. Some praise is due though. Quiet diplomancy from the British in particular during the late 90's led to the handing over of the Lockerbie suspects in 1999 and the announcements on WMD in 2003. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3336101.stm
North Korea is a smoking bomb at the moment though and definitely NOT safer. What Bush could do differently is debatable. Even China is distinctly not happy about North Korea having nukes.
Israel is sadly getting worse. Bush has stood by them and backed their every action, using vetos to block condemnation. No other country can do anything here if the US uses vetos, and so this is a US problem.
India is looking more encouraging, and Pakistan looks very promising. Unfortunately Pakistan is still not a democracy and lets be honest, many dictatorships initially looks promising, so only time will tell.

The one topic not covered by use is an increase in terrorism worldwide. US state department numbers show that this has increased.

Overall Bush is certainly doing much better this year than in the previous few years. Is this just trying to win an election or has he really changed heart and stated working with other countries instead of just acting unilaterally?

Paul.