So let's assume Iran does get the Bomb. How big of a threat is that, really? Could the mullahs hook it up to a missile, for instance, and fire that sucker off at Tel Aviv?
Arms Control Wonk Dr. Jeffrey Lewis tackles those questions in the second part of his trilogy on the Iran's nuclear capacity.
The bottom line: Iran might, might, be able to deliver a nuclear weapon against an Israeli city, but that would be at the extreme edge of their capabilities.
Much more worrisome, I would think, would be the weapon delivered by terrorists, perhaps on a ship...
Iran’s missiles aren’t that big, and its warheads aren’t that small. Without more testing of both, I think Iran would be hard pressed to deliver a missile to Israel, let alone Europe or the United States.
That said, Iran—with low confidence—might be able to build a 500-1000 kg warhead could hit targets thoughout the Middle East, including Israel if mated to its Shahab 3 IRBM...
This is, I think, the very edge of Tehran’s capabilities and they would have very low confidence in either system.
Yo need to read his whole essay on Iran and the Bomb at http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/945/iran-focus-part-1-how-close-is-
Iran’s Missiles
The most useful information about Tehran’s ballistic missile program was laid out in Congressional testimony by National Intelligence Officer Bob Walpole entitled, The Iranian Ballistic Missile and WMD Threat to the United States Through 2015. Additional detail is available from Proliferation: Threat and Response and Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat.
Tehran has a large number of short range ballistic missiles (100-500 km range) like the CSS-8, Scud B and Scud C. These can carry heavy payloads and reach targets very close to Iran—although they are famously inaccurate even for nuclear weapons.
What most of us want to know concerns Iran’s long range missiles—the ones that can hit us and our friends (and no, “allies” who forbid women from driving cars don’t count). Iran is developing the Shahab 3, which is basically an extended-range (1,300) North Korean No Dong (don’t snicker). Iran may also be developing an even longer range (2,000) km version.
